Not 100, not 80, but 78 billion euros. After two weeks of negotiations, Portugal, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached an agreement Tuesday night on how the international aid plan. It will therefore ultimately less than what had been anticipated in financial markets.
Good news for the Portuguese government, which can boast of being the least helpful of the three countries have received international financial support. "It's a good plan", welcomed the Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates.He even suggested that the terms negotiated in return for allowing his country to be better off than Ireland and Greece - the other two European states have been helped by the EU and the IMF. What is it exactly?
78 billion euros, is it thousands? The amount is released over three years, close to a few billion, forecasts the Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker. On 24 March he said on France 24 expect a plan of international aid of about 75 billion if Portugal was in demand.
This envelope corresponds to approximately euro cents, the borrowing of Portugal anticipated by the European Union."In 2011, Lisbon has to repay 26 billion in debt coming due," had told France 24, March 24, Celine Antonin, an economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). The EU therefore expects that Portugal is obliged to repay 26 billion per year until 2013.
Is it really a "good plan", as said Jose Socrates? "It [the plan] is good because the compromise shows that the EU approves the austerity measures taken by lLisbonne," said France 24 Christophe Blot, an economist at the OFCE specialist and the EU.In short: the "potion" austerity that Portugal will have to drink to its population will be less bitter than the beverage Irish and Greek.
Indeed, Jose Socrates said Wednesday that there would be no decrease in the minimum wage, abandonment of the 13th and 14th month in the civil service, privatization or the Deposit and Consignment: all measures that Ireland and Greece had to be in pain. "Make no mistake, Portugal had already adopted several of these provisions - such as reducing the minimum wage," said Christophe Blot.
Are there counterparts requested in Portugal? Nothing new under the sun. As in "cases" Greek and Irish, EU and IMF require Portugal to slash their deficits.In 2010 it was 9.1% of GDP and should be reduced to 5.9% this year to 4.5% in 2012 and 3% in 2013. "It's about the same as Ireland and Greece, which means that the plan condemned Portugal to the recession in the coming years," said Christophe Blot: "It may be a good plan, but bad news for the Portuguese. " To achieve this, there is no recipe. Lisbon will prepare yet another austerity program with cuts in social spending and a likely tax increase.
Portuguese Prime Minister has however welcomed the calendar. He had indeed set targets for deficit reduction more stringent (4.6% of GDP in 2011, 3% in 2012 and 2% in 2013)."But at the time, it was essentially announcement effect to reassure financial markets and avoid having to apply for financial assistance to the European Union," says Christophe Blot. He said the compromise reached Tuesday night just to ask essentially targets more "realistic".
