The approval by the Security Council of UN resolution 1973, Thursday, marks something of a return to the forefront of French diplomacy. On the antenna of FRANCE 24, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe reiterated that "France [works] to convince his partners" for "days, if not weeks."
The insistence of France vis-à-vis the international community has borne fruit.After the decision of the Security Council of UN, Libya announced Friday its intention to immediately comply with UN orders by putting "an end to all military operations" and observing "an immediate cease- fire ".
If this latest development is confirmed on the ground, it could be a proven success for French diplomacy.However, the positions of Paris supported for this procedure is complex to decipher.
Since the official recognition of the Libyan National Transitional Council (CNT) as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people (March 10), Paris has stepped up calls for military intervention.
Particularly, this position contrasts sharply with the attitude of French diplomacy at recent Arab uprisings - in Tunisia and Egypt.The Quai d'Orsay was then multiplied the blunders, from the point of discrediting the entire French diplomacy and deface Paris's position on these issues.
A position to assume
Reached by France24.com Eugene Rogan, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oxford, said that Paris had no other choice but to "continue its efforts" to address the problem Jamahiriya: "France has taken a very surprising recognizing a government instead of a state.It seems that from the time when President Sarkozy has legitimized the CNT, unpredictably, [...] France could not afford to be the only major countries not to recognize the regime of Gaddafi ".
Repeated calls from the Quai d'Orsay for an international consensus had finally paid off. But the question of whether early recognition of the CNT was part of an overall strategy to put pressure on the international community continue to arise.
For Eugene Rogan, it is likely that France was forced to assume its partners a hasty decision, "President Sarkozy is very unpredictable and can be very spontaneous.When he recognized the CNT, it seems he did not consult its partners in Europe and America. "
Nevertheless, "it is very difficult to know for what purpose France decided to recognize the CNT. "Maybe she had received assurances on the award of contracts in exchange for his support. If this is a tenable hypothesis, there is nothing to verify it. I do not see any other explanation, "he develops.
However, the image of French diplomacy ultra responsive, which would cleverly controlled his skid, is not unanimously shared.According to Jean Dufourcq, a researcher at the Ecole Militaire in Paris and former director of the Research Centre of the College of Defence of NATO, "France shares the idea that it must intervene when a population suffered an attack of its leader, especially if the process takes place in an area directly concerning. "
This strategic aspect, which aims to protect the Mediterranean against a threat of destabilization, is a major factor to decrypt the French position on the issue of Libya, said Jean Dufourcq, whose reasoning supports the thesis of a controlled strategy from the beginning by Paris. "Behind the scenes, it is likely that the project was on the table for a month.Since the establishment of a military process requires a lot of work beforehand. "
The hexagonal frontline diplomacy
Rest in obtaining approval of an intervention in Libya, France was left to the initiative of a major operation. For now, the Quai d'Orsay has limited interventions. The government spokesman Baroin confirmed Friday morning that military strikes would occur "within hours" and that the French military "will participate".
For Jean Dufourcq, this vagueness is part of Paris by a certain continuity: "We have just concluded the political stage of this operation. Now open the military aspect, namely the establishment of the process, says he said.If France did not rule on a specific schedule is that the UN is in a logic of 'surprise military'. If the humanitarian need is unquestionable, the strategy calls for hitting at the right time. "
As a prelude to the Council vote, Alain Juppe had evoked a quick response, saying it was "a matter of days, [...] may be a matter of hours." Since no information has filtered out about it.
Respect of staff and military means that each country involved could make available to the coalition, they have still not been disclosed.
